Friday, March 23, the Shevchenkovsky district court of Kiev arrested for two months the Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Nadezhda Savchenko. It is suspected of staging a coup and assassinate the President. “Ribbon.ru” to understand, in just two years Savchenko has passed a thorny road from national hero to enemy of the state, what can we expect in the foreseeable future and that will receive the Ukrainian power from the unwinding of this story.
March 8 at the intersection of the boundary lines between the DPR and Ukraine-controlled territories employees of the security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained Vladimir Ruban is a Ukrainian volunteer, involved in release of the captives. He drove to Ukraine a large consignment of weapons. First there were reports that Ruban almost alone planning an attack on the government quarter in Kiev.
soon, However, Ukrainian security officials said that Ruban did not act alone. 13 Mar investigators have called Nadezhda Savchenko for questioning in the case. On 15 March the General Prosecutor of Ukraine (GPU) has submitted to the Verkhovna Rada three views: on the lifting of immunity, on detention and on Nadezhda Savchenko’s arrest on suspicion of plotting a coup.
on March 22 the Verkhovna Rada has satisfied the petition of GPU. On the same day, Savchenko was detained by the staff, and the next day the court arrested her until may 20. These events were accompanied by a flurry of approval from the Ukrainian politicians. Although just two years ago the same people were honored Savchenko, who returned from Russian captivity, and applauded when President Poroshenko was presented her star of the Hero of Ukraine. It seems during this time on the way from the Russian prison before the big Ukrainian politicians Hope somewhere taken a wrong turn. That is not surprising — the people who proved themselves on the battlefield, not always able to choose the right tactics in political battles.
Nadezhda Savchenko was born in 1981 in Kiev. Practically all her life connected with the Ukrainian armed forces. Savchenko served in the Ukrainian contingent in Iraq, has mastered a speciality of the Navigator at Kharkiv University of air forces of Ukraine. In 2013, she supported the Maidan, took part in the clashes on Hrushevskoho street in January 2014. With the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbass, joined the volunteer battalion Aidar.
in the Summer of 2014 she was captured by soldiers of the LC and were taken to Russia, whether she crossed the Ukrainian-Russian border and was detained in Russia. In the end, the investigative Committee of Russia (SKR) has accused her of aiding and abetting the killing of VGTRK journalists Igor Kornelyuk and Anton Voloshin.
In March 2016, a Russian court found her guilty and sentenced to 22 years in prison. However, two months later, Savchenko was exchanged for two citizens of Russia, Alexander Alexandrov Evgeny Erofeev, convicted in Ukraine for participation in combat actions on the side of the unrecognized republics.
All the time, while in Russia there was a consequence and court, the foreign Ministry of Ukraine and mass-media were active in advocacy work, demanding her immediate release. Sitting in jail, Nadezhda Savchenko became the Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, member of Ukrainian PACE delegation. The European Parliament and the US State Department recognized her as a political prisoner.
About her movies, her support was made by artists, school children wrote her letters and studied her biography. Even had a Lenin square in the provincial town Vatutine in Cherkasy region renamed in honor of Savchenko.
Less than two years she became world famous. Rating of recognition Savchenko in Ukraine was 99 percent.
However, after returning to Ukraine, it became clear that the Ukrainian government would prefer to see Savchenko in a Russian prison, and not in the Ukrainian Parliament. In the years 2014-2016 on its behalf, frankly PR all Ukrainian politicians. Her arrest and resonant criminal case played a role in the intensification of the crisis between Russia and the West.
Yes, the first months after the liberation Savchenko was the hero of all esters. However, it soon became clear that the Ukrainian media have created an ideal image that has little in common with a real person. Nadezhda Savchenko was a conflict. Already four months after homecoming Savchenko left nominated her to the deputies of the faction Fatherland.
Savchenko repeatedly and very critically spoke about the Ukrainian authorities. Blamed her for the war in the Donbass, corruption. Publicly supported the establishment of the dictatorship and were critical about the prospects of the current government. A year ago, she allegedly called the Ukrainian military to overthrow the government. However, the matter was hushed up.
Hope was a chance to be a corrupt MP or marginalized as some “heroes” of the Maidan. Apparently, it was not satisfied with both, and she decided to go her own way.
the story of the arrest Savchenko, accused of plotting a coup leaves more questions than answers. Chief among them: who benefits from this story and what receive dividends interested persons.
At the same time, with regard to the plans for the attack on the government quarter and the seizure of the Parliament, Nadiya Savchenko does not deny his participation. However, set out the attorney General version is highly questionable, and the evidence is inconclusive.
the Statement that Savchenko alone or in groups of several people were going to capture Parliament and to kill all MPs, do not look plausible. And the evidence do not inspire confidence.
Published by the General Prosecutor of record does not directly indicate preparation of a terrorist attack Nadezhda Savchenko. The videos Savchenko but speaks of the intention to make the above attack, but the format of the conversation is more reminiscent of the dreamy chatter in the kitchen, rather than a staged preparation of a coup.
However, the quality of evidence in this case is secondary. Petro Poroshenko as a result of several judicial reforms, was able to subdue the judiciary so that, if necessary, Nadezhda Savchenko can plant in the presence of any evidence.
According to Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik, the government expected that Hope Savchenko will not return to Ukraine (at the time of the allegations of its involvement, it was in Europe). However, back than upped the ante. As a result, the power itself outsmarted and caught between bad and very bad solutions.
very bad, according to Ruslan Bortnik, insisted the Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman and representatives of one of the two ruling parties — the popular front. The essence of this solution is the recognition of Nadiya Savchenko mentally insane. The Prime Minister has spoken about this quite specifically.
Such a decision would be a direct reference to the Soviet punitive psychiatry and, obviously, would not be supported either domestically or in the international arena.
However, the recognition Savchenko insane and its premise in a psychiatric hospital would have played into the hands of opponents of Poroshenko and the current government. First, it would cause enormous reputational impact personally on the President, who just two years ago Savchenko was awarded the star of Hero of Ukraine.
second, Savchenko at any time could be considered healthy and to release with undetermined consequences for the government in the first place — again, for the President.
This script was advanced by representatives of the National front and the Prime Minister, probably for the following reasons. The popular front, the party which belongs to former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov and interior Minister Arsen Avakov has rating at the level of statistical error. Popular front will not pass in Parliament in the elections of 2019, and are therefore actively looking for opportunities for bargaining with the President’s team of, shall we say, interesting conditions of cooperation in the elections.
Creating challenges domestically and in foreign policy weaken the bargaining position of the President and therefore strengthen the position of the popular front. For this reason, “very bad option” was supported by the Prime Minister Vladimir Groysman, which strengthens its position within the political hierarchy and thinks about his own political future after the election.
the Government has just chosen a bad option, that is, the arrest, and probably imprisonment. This option, as well as any other, in any case will cause reputational damage to the authorities. The arrest of the hero of Ukraine, a national favorite, which just two years ago were on hand and praised the whole country, obviously will cause confusion and rejection in society.
the Ukrainian political expert Kirill Molchanov believes that if the government doesn’t put the case Savchenko on the brakes as it was with the case of bribery of the people’s Deputy Igor Mosiychuk, the loss of reputation would be even greater. Weak procedural provision for the prosecution and, obviously, the daring behavior of Savchenko will undermine the authority remains of the Ukrainian authorities. A year before the election, it is quite undesirable.
There is another unpleasant feature in the case Savchenko. The power in the eyes of Ukrainian society did not become an innocent victim of the bloody conspirators around which should unite to protect. On the contrary, if the society does not support Savchenko directly, then certainly not consider her a bad person and a criminal. People are frankly tired of economic problems, insecurity and the constant scandals at the highest levels. Therefore, the preparation of an armed coup is perceived with well-known understanding.
This feature is a very dangerous signal for the Ukrainian authorities. This week was published ratings of potential presidential candidates and political parties. According to them, the level of government support is at its lowest level since 2014. Petro Poroshenko, apparently, has no prospects of re-election in 2019, and his party has a very shaky prospects to enter the Parliament. The second ruling party, the popular front, has long been those prospects lost and is rated at 0.6 percent.
In terms of loss of confidence of the majority of citizens of Ukraine, the authorities were thrown yet another challenge in the form of coup attempts. And let it passed under the control of the security services and was able to prevent the fact of preparation of a coup creates fear. The government understands that if anything, she will have no one to lean on.
In this situation we can assume that a coup attempt the government uses for a crackdown. Ukrainian political analysts believe that to the case Savchenko has the potential to connect anyone. And Yulia Tymoshenko, the main rival Petro Poroshenko in the presidential race, and Igor Kolomoisky, the victim in the fight with the President, and Viktor Medvedchuk, whom punctually is called a “Kremlin agent”.
the Crackdown could also affect the less technically weak players. We are talking about the Ukrainian nationalists, the military, participants of military operations in the Donbass. Nadezhda Savchenko is among these people considerable authority. Potentially, they could support a coup.
So that the government’s actions against the opposition of the radicals is to be expected. For example, during a court hearing in the case Savchenko, police blocked the headquarters of the National body in Kiev.
the Ukrainian policy is characterized by a high level conspiracy. Almost every opposition politician or public figure is suspected of working or cooperation with the presidential administration. Do not stay aside and Hope Savchenko.
So, the political expert Dmitry Korniychuk sure that Savchenko is a “project Bank” (of the presidential administration of Ukraine). According to him, Petro Poroshenko uses Savchenko as a point of Assembly conventionally “Patriotic” opposition. It can be assumed that under such a scenario occurs, the drainage of the far-right protest in Ukraine.
a Similar view is shared by Ukrainian political analyst Valentin Gaidai. “Scandal Savchenko diverts attention from the main leaders of the presidential race, in particular, from the strongest competitor — Yulia Tymoshenko, — the expert believes. — It is possible that the administration is seriously thinking over the promotion of Savchenko as a possible candidate for President in order to divert votes from Tymoshenko. Still, the appearance of another bright odious women in politics takes Yulia Tymoshenko monopoly on the role of a certain iron lady, the only female politician”.
This version is confirmed by sociological surveys. In February this year, the rating of Yulia Tymoshenko accounted 9.8 percent, making it the leader in the presidential race. President Petro Poroshenko has just 3.9 percent, he is in fourth place in the ranking. So the desire Poroshenko to weaken its main rival is understandable.
However, Ruslan Bortnik does not agree with this interpretation of the actions of the authorities. According to experts, Savchenko is not suitable as a competitor of Tymoshenko for two reasons. First, the electorate is little overlap, so there are conditions to support Savchenko as a counterweight to Tymoshenko.
second, Hope Savchenko virtually no rating. Immediately after her release, the level of support has been tremendous, but it is not converted into a political rating. In December 2016, six months after returning home, her ranking accounted 2.7 percent. A little more than a year, in February 2018, Nadezhda Savchenko generally featured in the presidential rating.
Ruslan Bortnik compares the version about the pre-pumping of Nadezhda Savchenko with the same in respect of Mikheil Saakashvili. In the fall of 2017 was also a popular point of view that he can delay the opposition constituency. However, after six months, shortly before his expulsion from the country, Mikheil Saakashvili politically completely marginalized.
political Analyst Kirill Molchanov also doubts that the administration of the President of Ukraine entered into some agreement with Savchenko. According to experts, it is difficult to manage the person who creates chaos around him. Respectively and agree with her about anything dangerous.
However, definitive conclusions to do while early. A little more than a week, as Savchenko was accused of a coup attempt. Only after a few months it will be possible to say whether the case Savchenko campaign project or the Ukrainian government set myself some other goals.
it is possible that the case Savchenko is the desire of the authorities to distract the public from socio-economic problems. According to a former adviser to the Prime Minister of Ukraine Anatoliy Peshko, the power to create new information causes that trigger people’s attention. Maintaining a constant sense of threat from the fighting in the Donbas, the coup attempts of Mikhail Saakashvili and Hope Savchenko, the government distracting public opinion from the failures in the economy and falling quality of life.
the Real problems are really missing: the increase of prices and tariffs, the constant devaluation of the hryvnia, unemployment. It is worth noting that in the midst of scandal Savchenko was dismissed head of the National Bank of Ukraine Valeria Gontareva. Amid news of a failed coup, the news about the dismissal of Gontareva passed almost unnoticed, and in fact it (along with other senior officials) guilty in a catastrophic fall of the hryvnia.
so far, the events only unfold, and to make definite conclusions about all the stakeholders of Nadezhda Savchenko’s case clearly before. The only thing you can say for sure is that Ukrainian politics will continue to live with the scandals and probably this is not the last conspiracy against the current Ukrainian authorities.